Monday Misprices for The Masters
Paul Casey - $7,700: I tweeted this out as soon as the Draftkings pricing was released last week, but Uncle Paul is simply underpriced by at least $1,000 based on his 6-month form. A winner on the Euro Tour, and a weekly fixture on the Top 20 section of PGA Tour leaderboards, added to his near two-decade long success (without a win) at Augusta, I expect Casey to be near the top of the ownership ranks, possibly eclipsing 20% which is very high for a major where stronger fields lead to depressed pricing across the board. All that said, he is a phenomenal value at this price.
Louis Oosthuizen - $7,500: A big game hunter of the highest order, Louis of course has an Open Championship win under his belt, as well as a runner-up in each of the other majors. Despite his mercurial nature and so/so form this year, I expect the South African to lurk heavily, like a malnourished leopard on the savannah, much as his idol Gary Player did many times on these sacred grounds. He will have many other apex predators gunning from that ultimate meal, the green jacket, but at this price, you know the sweetest swing on tour will be fine tuned for yet another major T20, and perhaps even more.
For the $7,200-$6,700 value range, there are several players who catch my eye:
Justin Rose (IF HEALTHY) - $7,200: Insane price at $7,200 based on his playoff loss to Sergio here in 2017, as well as several other flirtations with the green jacket.
Billy Horschel - $7,200: Coming off the WGC Match Play victory the guy’s confidence is at an all-time high.
Max Homa - $7,100: Spoke on his podcast about how the course fit his eye first go around, won at The Riv earlier this year, and is in overall excellent form.
- Matt Kuchar - $6,800
- Si Woo Kim - $6,700
- Sebastian Munoz - $6,700
Kevin Na - $6,500: Just to see DJ put the jacket on him, but also has thrived at the correlated Riviera.
Matt Wallace - $6,400: Coming off an impressive performance at the Valero where he nearly out-dueled Spieth, and confirming this has the best he’s hit the ball all season, I expect him to at least make the cut, and perhaps even peek his head into T10 range if things break his way.