*Published prior to the conclusion of the Second Round of the Valero Texas Open...
Hello friends and welcome back to our annual drive down Magnolia Lane, for a tradition truly unlike any other: The Masters. Augusta National is the setting, as it is every year, the Elysian Fields of Golf. Here on Long Island, Spring is slowly but surely beginning to bloom. No azaleas in sight, just the smell of burnt tar on the Long Island Expressway, and the chance of glory in our minds, a mere 800 miles away in Georgia.
Golf will always be on my mind, thanks to the beautiful framed portrait of Golden Bell pictured above hanging on my office wall here at the Blatant HQ (shout-out to the baby bro for this magnificent Christmas gift I will adore forever). But after getting married to my extraordinary wife and having our first baby girl on the way in July, golf will have to take a backseat for awhile. And so, my dreams of one day walking the hallowed fairways of ANGC will have to due for now.
So without any further adieu, here is where we stand on the eve of the greatest sporting event in America. Up there with apple-pie, Coca Cola, and Abraham Lincoln, the beauty and grandeur we will witness Thursday morning is truly a blessing from above. The usual suspects will all be there: Scottie, Rory, Rahmbo, JT, X-MAN, PC, Jordy, Morikawabunga, Jordan, Brooksy, Big Bad Bryson, and last year's wunderkind runner up debutante, Ludvig "The Swedish Android" Aberg, just to name a few...
But their merits are obvious and potential lurkage undeniable, so let's take a peek at some potential dark hawses who could be in contention after navigating Amen Corner Sunday afternoon...
Bear in mind, the level of "longshot" on some of these players is debatable, but nevertheless they should all be considered at a minimum for a Top Ten speculation, and at best a legitimate chance to don the illusive Green Jacket:
Cam Smith (45-1 O/R): It seems kinda weird to mention a guy with a handful of Top 10s here in the last decade alone as an outsider, but whether it's his LIV departure, or his quiet demeanor, 45-1 is a fantastic number for the former Open and Players Champion. It's difficult to truly gauge a player's incoming form when he only plays a few events in the lead up to this, with middling results at best, but with his short game wizardry, I wouldn't count him out any time he tees it up around these parts.
Shane "THE IRISH BEAR" Lowry (50-1): On the flip-side, Shane's form in 2025 has been nothing short of spectacular. With five Top 20s in seven starts this year, including a valiant runner-up to Rory at Pebble, the Open Champion could very well get his second major this week, starting a possible special run all the way back to Portrush in July.
Dustin Johnson (65-1): When he takes a break from becoming Prada's most valued customer, DJ can still stripe it like none other. Now healthy after a nagging back, a T5 in Singapore is all I need to see to back the COVID Masters champion at this number. Not to mention he will want to get back to firing at all cylinders with his defense at Oakmont on the horizon this Summer (same goes for the aforementioned Lowry, who, memorably blew a big Sunday lead to Dustin the last time the US Open was played there, but more on that in the months ahead).
Sepp "THE AUSTRIAN BULLDAWG" Straka (80-1): You can make a case that no one has had a hotter start to 2025 than Seppie (sans Rory of course, more on him later). The Georgian (by way of Vienna haha), should play better here than in years past. He admittedly is not fond of longer tracks like this, and has cooled off a bit since his torrid start to the year out West. However, at 80-1, no one catches a hot putter like Sepp, and now with several major lurks under his belt, the time is right for him to be in contention at the grand daddy of them all.
Jason Day (80-1): If you're a sicko like me and partake in the annual tradition of re-watching old Masters' final rounds on da Youtubes, you'll see this Aussie in contention no less than a dozen times since he broke on to the scene nearly two decades ago. Reunited with his father figure and bag man, Collin Swatton, Jason is back to his old ways of big boy event contention, led by his putting which would make Gentle Ben smile ear-to-ear. With three T15s already under his belt at The Amex, Pebble Beach, and the Arnold Palmer, mixed with his last minute WD from The Players due to illness, methinks the ole swashbuckling Aussie will be chomping at the bit to add a second major to his cv this week.
Justin Rose (150-1): The first of two veteran mega longshots is Old Rosey. Much like Day, he lurked seriously at Pebble and Bay Hill, and has a penchant for sticking his nose into contention here at Augusta over the last 20+ years since bursting on the scene at Royal Birkdale. Most memorably of course was his gut-wrenching playoff loss to Sergio, who if you remember, maybe the par of the century from inside a bush on 13 to get back in contention, and in my dear friend @RomeoTheCaddy's heart forever (while sticking a knife in mine), back in 2017. In addition to his win equity, I love the Merion US Open Champ as a First Round Leader speculation, especially if the forecast calls for some opportune gusts from the gods.
Phil Mickelson (200-1): Some may be shocked to read this, but here we are. Let's put aside his age, and potential lingering bad karma for taking the money over cementing his legacy, Phil can still win this. Why? Several reasons. First of all, to all of our displeasure, there will be no Tiger Woods to overshadow him this week. And despite still being a likely persona non-grata amongst the more traditional stalwarts of Augusta National, he will be the owner of the most green jackets teeing it up this week. He was written off at age 50 before hoisting the Wanamaker in spectacular fashion on the isle of Kiawah not so long ago. He was thought to be toast again when he was runner-up to Rahm here only a few years ago. And one last thing: the impact of Dave Pelz (rest in peace legend) on Phil's short game cannot be understated, and thus he will surely be playing with a heavy heart this week, and maybe, just maybe, with a little help from above, Uncle Phil will make room in his closet for one final green jacket.
Humpday Hammers (value plays with T5 upside): Cousins Denny McCarthy and Harris English, Russell Henley (duh), Ex-Captain America (Level 1 Egregious "Monday Misprice" in DFS), Slick Willy Z, Billy Ho Wayne, and Davis "Yung Junah" Thompson.
Sicko Specials (likely sub 10% DFS ownership, sub $7,000 on DK, with T10 upside): JaegerBombs, The Fargo Meat Missile (Hoge), and Thomas Detry.
Winner: Rory McIlroy. It was always Rory. One time...
So as Great Uncle Harvey taught us, take dead aim, and as always, BOL!
Til we meet again in Butler Cabin, enjoy the show.
-Chief
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